Modelo examen 2 – Reading

Part 1

Read the following text, then read the five statements. Some of these statements are true according to the text, some of them are false. Write T for True or F for False in the box next to each statement. 

There has been a renaissance of interest into probability theory and what forms it could take in modern society, recently. When the Royal Society, the world’s oldest academy of the discipline, was founded in London in 1660, science was referred to as natural philosophy. In the 19th century, though, nature and philosophy went their separate ways as the natural philosophers grew in number, power and influence. Nevertheless, the bond between the fields remains in the name of one of the Royal Society’s journals, Philosophical Transactions. 

The Society refreshed a discussion to clarify the misunderstanding of the ideas of one particular 18th-century English philosopher, Thomas Bayes. Bayes was one of two pellagrous influences on the early development of probability theory and statistics. The other was Blaise Pascal, a Frenchman. Yet, where Pascal’s thoughts are transparent and easily grasped, Bayes’s have always been elusive to all but the most studied. Pascal developed his ideas similar to that of a craps game: each throw of the dice is removed totally from the previous one. Bayes’s allows for the accumulation of experience, and its incorporation into a statistical model in the form of prior assumptions that can vary with circumstances. 

A previous assumption about tomorrow’s weather, for example, is that it will be similar to today’s. Assumptions about the weather the day after tomorrow, though, will be modified by what actually happens tomorrow. Psychologically, people tend to be Bayesian—to the extent of often making false connections. And that risk of false connection is why scientists like Pascal’s version of the world. It appears to be objective. But when models are built, it is almost impossible to avoid including Bayesian-style prior assumptions in them. By failing to acknowledge that, model builders risk making serious mistakes. In one sense it is obvious that assumptions will affect outcomes—another reason Bayes is not properly acknowledged. That obviousness, though, buries deeper subtleties. In one of the papers in Philosophical Transactions David Donars of Brigham Young University points out a cogent example. Climate models have lots of parameters that are illustrated by numbers, an example being, how quickly snow crystals fall from clouds, or for how long they stay inside those clouds. 

Actually, these are several ways of measuring the same thing, so whether a model uses one or the other should make no difference to its predictions. And, on a single run, it does not. But models are not given single runs; they are run thousands of times, with different values for the parameters, to produce a range of possible outcomes, since the future is uncertain. The results are presumed to aggregate around the most probable version of the future. The particular range of values chosen for a parameter is an example of a Bayesian prior assumption, since it stems from actual experience of how the climate behaves—and may thus be modified in the light of experience. But the individual values used to plug into the model can cause trouble. Models of climate have a plethora of parameters that might somehow be related in this sort of way. To be sure you are seeing valid results rather than artifacts of the models, you need to take account of all the ways that can happen. (Based on Economist Magazine)

1) Pascal is more straightforward about his thoughts than Bayes.

2) Pascal based his theory on a card game.

3) Bayes calculated certain modifying variables into his theory.

4) Climate models must have a number of ways of measuring the very same thing to be able to predict the most probable outcome.

5) It is impossible to properly set up the parameters as you have to account for all the possible ways it can happen.

Part 2

Read the text and fill the gaps with the correct sentences A-H. Write the letter of the missing sentence in the box in the gap. There are two extra sentences you will not need. 

A) Investigated the migration patterns of male hyenas.

B) No young males are allowed to join the group.

C) The rule requires males to have entered the group.

D) After the mating is successfully accomplished.

E) Females invest greatly in their young.

F) But may be widespread among other species that live in groups.

G) Inbred offsprings are vulnerable to disease.

H) Favouring those that had courted them for several years.

Part 3

Read the four texts below. There are eight questions about the texts. Decide which text (A, B, C or D) tells you the answer to the question. The first one is done for you. 

Which text : 

Example: mentions the drawbacks of an increase in rainfall?  D

1) Describes differences in how water shortage affects animal species?   

2) Mentions the loss of traditional abilities as a consequence of climate change?

3. Blames climate change and human action for the problems affecting the local community?

Which text is saying the following?

4. Fan the flames of water scarcity.

5. Burgeoning concern for uncertain nourishment.

6. Falling of grains if modifications are not accomplished.

7. A specific side effect of climate change made it challenging for individuals.

Part 4

Read the article and answer the questions. Write a maximum of five words for each answer.

We Are What We Eat

The decline in a nutrient-rich diet, exacerbated by an increasingly unhealthy lifestyle, is to blame for the recent and rapid rise in degenerative diseases amongst Westerners. In fact, our present day diet bears little relation to that of our predecessors, which was nutritionally rich due to personal, social and environmental factors. Most at increases the incidence of chronic disease patterns occurring later in life. It seems that the older we get, as a species, the less wise we are becoming, in eating habits, at least. 

One major environmental factor that has drastically affected the quality of the Western diet is a change in farming methods. The favouring of monoculture farming in direct opposition to nature. Monocultures drain the soil of specific nutrients that would have been otherwise replaced by growing different crops. This has a knock-on effect, creating crops that are less nutritious, being deficient in vital minerals. As proof of this, recent government figures published show that fresh vegetables in the 1950s contained 50% more minerals than fresh produce half a century later. So we may think we are eating healthily by having our “five a day” portions of fresh fruit and vegetables but what we are putting into our mouths, in fact, has little nutritional value. 

The addition of certain minerals to the soil to stimulate uptake of micronutrients from the earth further depletes minerals in grown vegetables. One mineral particularly affected is selenium (Se) which, once removed from the soil, needs to be replaced. However, in the interests of crop yield and maximum productivity, this is not happening, leading to the appearance of chronic diseases in the population that are related to selenium deficiency.

Replenishing the soil with the depleted minerals may prove costly in the short-term but in the long-term, it would reduce the medical costs of treating those with illnesses resulting from mineral-deficient diets. 

We too are to blame, however, for our poor diet. It is all too easy to scapegoat modern farming methods as the cause of all our dietary woes when we should be paying more attention instead to what we eat. The huge popularity of fast food outlets bears testimony to our woeful eating habits. Children are especially liable to eat nutritionally of fast food outlets bears testimony to our woeful eating habits children are especially liable to eat nutritionally poor diets. Over the last 50 years there has been a reduction in calorie intake (19% for boys and 29% for girls) whilst conversely sugar consumption has increased dramatically. Fewer calories mean a lower nutrient intake in the body resulting in lower immune strength and therefore increased susceptibility to disease. 

Neither are schools blame-free for the nutritionally deficient diets of schoolchildren. School diets over the last half century show major deficiencies in all minerals and key vitamins. 86% of girls, for example, are getting below the recommended daily amount of iron, which is critical for good health. This is creating potential major problems for our young as they grow older in terms of chronic disease patterns related to a breaking down of the immune system such a fear is collaborated by evidence that shows that childhood leukaemia is increasing in incidence. It is time, therefore, that schools made children more aware of the need to have nutritious diet. Children should be given information, in the form of leaflets and talks, on what they should eat and what foods they ought to avoid. One made even more nutritionally deficient by the increasing consumption of processed foods, like meat and cheese. A staggering 70-80% of the food we eat in the West is processed in some way, thereby reducing the mineral and vitamin content of food. In addition, children should be weaned off a high fat diet that in adulthood can lead to high levels of (blood) cholesterol and, in worst case scenarios, to high fat diet that in adulthood can lead to high blood pressure, strokes and heart attacks. If the basic of healthy eating are instilled in children from an early age, then they are more likely to eat sensibly, as adults.

1) What causes unhealthy conditions among developed countries’ citizens?

2) Apparently, we have become less brilliant in terms of nutrition…

3) What element has supposed a point of no return when it comes to eating in Occidental nations?

4) What indirectly influences the quality of crops’ substances?

5) Concretely, what costs an arm and a leg currently but not so much later on?

6) Who is searching for guilty parties instead of assuming responsibilities?

7) A diminished intake boils down to…

8. What seed should be planted in kids’ minds so that they nurture themselves better?